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StablecoinsPolicyEnterprise Note

Yield for Me, Not for Thee

Key Insights

  • U.S. banks capture an 8:1 spread on savings deposits and a 46:1 spread on checking deposits across a $17.50 trillion base.
  • Net Interest Income from depositor funding accounts for 40-50% of total revenue for the Big 4.
  • GENIUS blocked direct issuer-paid interest, then exchange and wallet “rewards” emerged as high-yield checking accounts for depositors. Now, Section 404 of the Senate Banking Committee’s revision to the CLARITY bill aims to remove that option.
  • When banks failed to satisfy depositors last time, Money Market Mutual Funds' AUM increased by over 4600% from $4 billion to $186 billion between 1977 and 1981.
  • If stablecoin products force deposit pricing toward market rates, banks’ net-interest margins compress first, and any increase in borrowing costs is mainly a repricing of previously subsidized bank margins, not proof that credit itself disappears.

Introduction

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Dillon is a Research Analyst on the Protocol Research team. He previously worked as an Automation/Mechatronics Engineer at Flex, Nike, and Target after graduating with a BSE in Mechanical Engineering from the University of Michigan - Ann Arbor. While he has maintained an interest in robotics, his interests lie in DeAI, privacy, prediction markets, and, more recently, quantum computing.

Mentioned Assets
Outline
  • Key Insights
  • Introduction
  • How the Spread Works
  • Net Interest Margin
  • The Impetus
  • History Repeating: The Money Market Precedent
  • The Stablecoin Threat
  • Depositor Flight Scenario
  • What Banks Actually Stand to Lose
Author
Dillon is a Research Analyst on the Protocol Research team. He previously worked as an Automation/Mechatronics Engineer at Flex, Nike, and Target after graduating with a BSE in Mechanical Engineering from the University of Michigan - Ann Arbor. While he has maintained an interest in robotics, his interests lie in DeAI, privacy, prediction markets, and, more recently, quantum computing.
Mentioned Assets