YES or NO on Polymarket?

Key Insights

• Polymarket is a prediction market on Polygon that has experienced remarkable organic growth and attention this year.
• While current volumes are largely election driven, non-election volumes have also been growing at a rapid rate.
• We explore several of Polymarket’s potential growth drivers, including sizable funding, a potential TGE, and the continued financialization of prediction.
• There are risks to the thesis as well, which include a recent uptick in competition, the need for market making incentives, and a lack of recurring markets.
• Although we foresee a drop in metrics immediately following the election cycle, there is a strong case for Polymarket’s sustainability.

Polymarket’s Success Story