Spoiler Alert – Coinbase Q4 Revenue Estimates

Key Insights

• Using publicly available data, we estimate Coinbase’s Q4 net revenue at $580 million, slightly below consensus estimates of $590 million.
• The primary driver for revenue is trading volumes, which we expect to be lower by 9% at $145 billion for the quarter. Lower crypto prices and muted market sentiment are the likely causes.
• For Coinbase, the bright spot is its interest income. This income is being driven by higher yields generated on USDC supply as interest rates rise. We expect interest income to be $137 million, up 35% for the quarter.

Coinbase is expected to announce its quarterly result on Feb. 21, 2023. Traditional finance observers wait with bated breath for the company to process the results, balance the books, audit them, and then upload its pdf to learn about its quarterly performance. On the other hand, “shadowy supercoders” like us can use publicly available information on open and transparent blockchains to estimate how the company fared over the quarter.