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Spoiler Alert – Coinbase Q3 2024 Revenue Estimates
Key Insights
- We estimate Coinbase's net revenue for Q3 2024 to be $1.18 billion, down 15% from the previous quarter. This estimate is lower than the street’s consensus gross revenue estimate of ~$1.25 billion.
- In Q3, trading volume fell by 22% with lower prices and volatility. We expect transaction revenue to follow a similar trajectory and drop 21% for the quarter to $617 million.
- Coinbase’s non-trading revenue shows resilience in a slow quarter, falling by only 6%.
- We expect stablecoin revenue to increase by 5% for the quarter, driven by growth in USDC supply.
- We estimate blockchain rewards from Coinbase’s staking service to fall by 18%, driven by lower average prices for ETH and other Proof-of-Stake assets.
- Coinbase’s net revenue is increasingly less reliant on fickle trading volume. Trading volume in Q3 2024 was only 11% higher than in Q3 2022, but net revenue is expected to be higher by more than 100%.
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Kunal previously worked in equity research and now considers himself a financial analyst in crypto. He specializes in valuation and bottom-up analysis for Layer-1 and DeFi protocols because he has yet to learn of a way to value NFTs.
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