On March 5, the Opinion Foundation held a Token Generation Event (TGE) for the OPN token, with 19.9% (198.5 million OPN) of the 1.0 billion total supply circulating at launch.
On March 14, Opinion.Trade launched Maker Rebates for sports, esports, and macro markets, which offer a maker rebate up to 50% on taker fees. From March 14 to March 30, the Foundation distributed $52,200 USDT in maker rebates.
In March 2026, the business sector led Opinion.Trade trading volume with a 28.3% share ($134.2 million), followed by politics at 25.1% ($119.3 million) and macro at 17.6% ($83.6 million).
On April 2, the Opinion Foundation launched its dispute resolution process using the OPN token, requiring disputers to deposit the greater of 1% of market open interest or 1,000 OPN, and rewarding 1:1 of the disputer’s committed deposit if correct.
From November 2025 to March 2026, Opinion.Trade surpassed $3.1 billion in monthly notional volume in four of the five months, and from Oct. 24, 2025, to March 31, processed $23.4 billion in cumulative notional volume.
Primer
Opinion (OPN) is building a four-layer architecture for prediction markets that includes prediction market Opinion.Trade, an oracle and market-creation assistant, Opinion AI, Opinion Metapool, a planned liquidity layer, and Opinion Protocol, a planned token standard for prediction markets.
On Oct. 24, 2025, Opinion.Trade launched private access on BNB Chain, followed by permissionless access on Nov. 4. Opinion built the platform to support expansion to additional chains. Markets follow standard prediction market pricing, where a $0.65 price per share implies a 65% probability of the outcome. Positions settle at $1 per share if the result is correct and $0 per share if it is incorrect. Users who place limit orders (makers) pay no fees, while users who place market orders (takers) pay a dynamic fee tied to the outcome probability. This fee peaks at 50% probability and declines near 0% or 100% probability to a minimum of $0.50.
Opinion AI resolves outcomes through an optimistic proposal and dispute process. After ingesting predefined sources, the system proposes an outcome. A jury of models and agents, including Gemini, OpenAI, and Claude, reviews this proposal before independent human reviewers evaluate and verify the final determination.
After Opinion AI proposes a resolution, OPN holders can file a dispute within a 2-hour window by staking OPN tokens. The required stake is calculated as the greater of 1% of the market's open interest or 1,000 OPN, using the Binance OPN/USDT rate at the time of the first resolution proposal. Accepted disputes return the full stake plus an equal OPN reward, totaling 2x the original stake. Rejected disputes forfeit the stake entirely.
On March 5, the Opinion Foundation held a Token Generation Event (TGE) for the OPN token. At launch, 19.9% (198.5 million OPN) of the 1.0 billion total supply was circulating.
The Opinion Foundation is a non-profit that promotes the development of applications and infrastructure built on Opinion's four-layer architecture through grants and strategic partnerships. It operates as a separate legal entity from any commercial operator, platform, or application within the Opinion ecosystem. OPN tokens are issued by an entity within the Opinion Foundation. Holding OPN does not confer equity, ownership, profit-sharing rights, or governance rights over the Opinion Foundation or any affiliated commercial entity.
In 2026, OPN holders will be able to lock their tokens to launch markets on Opinion.Trade as curators to earn a share of market trading fees. Curators also access AI-reviewers built by the Opinion Foundation that cross-examine market rules, flag hidden edge cases, and rewrite resolution criteria to reduce disputes.
As of March 31, the Opinion Foundation is developing OPN's utility framework. Applications built on Opinion's four-layer architecture are expected to use OPN for governance participation and incentives.
Allocations and Unlocks
Airdrop, 23.5% (235.0 million OPN): 3.5% of total OPN allocation (35.0 million OPN) unlocked at TGE, with the remaining 20.0% (200.0 million OPN) vesting linearly over 7 months.
Investors, 23.0% (230.0 million OPN): Private investors receive this allocation with a 12-month cliff followed by linear vesting over 24 months.
Team & Advisors, 19.5% (195.0 million OPN): Team members and advisors receive this allocation with a 12-month cliff followed by linear vesting over 24 months.
Foundation, 12.0% (120.0 million OPN): 1.0% of total allocation (10.0 million OPN) unlocked at TGE, with the remaining 11.0% (110.0 million OPN) subject to a 6-month cliff followed by linear vesting over 12 months.
Ecosystem & Incentives, 11.1% (111.0 million OPN): 5.65% of this allocation (56.5 million OPN) unlocked at TGE. The remaining 5.45% of this allocation (54.5 million OPN) vests linearly over 36 months.
Marketing, 8.9% (89.0 million OPN): 7.7% of total allocation (77.0 million OPN) unlocked at TGE, with the remaining 1.2% (12.0 million OPN) vesting linearly over 6 months.
Liquidity & Market Making, 2.0% (20.0 million OPN): Opinion Foundation deployed this allocation at TGE to seed market liquidity for market-making operations.
Maker Rebates Launch
On March 14, Opinion launched Maker Rebates for sports, esports, and macro markets, offering makers 50% rebates on taker fees. Rebates are calculated using the following formula, where P represents the executed price:
The Opinion Foundation credits rebates directly to the maker's account daily in USDT for participants with matched maker orders from the previous day.
From March 14 to 30, the Opinion Foundation distributed $52,200 USDT in maker rebates, an average of $3,100 USDT per day. During the same period, daily maker rebates ranged from a high of $7,400 on March 23 to a low of $1,200 on March 29.
In Q2 2026, the Opinion Foundation plans to launch OPN-enabled rebate tiers, tying discount levels to OPN token locks. Makers who lock OPN will receive the highest available maker rebate, while takers who lock OPN will receive fee discounts. The foundation also noted that users who lock OPN will also receive higher API rate limits on Opinion.Trade and access to advanced order types, including take profit, stop loss, and time-weighted average price (TWAP).
Opinion.Trade
Notional Volume
On Oct. 24, Opinion launched the Opinion.Trade prediction market on BNB Chain, with plans to deploy the platform on additional chains. From November 2025 to March 2026, Opinion.Trade surpassed $3.1 billion in monthly notional volume in four of the five months, and from Oct. 24, 2025 to March 31, has processed $23.4 billion in cumulative notional volume. In March 2026, Opinion.Trade notional volume declined 84% MoM to $486.1 million, from $3.1 billion in February, likely tied to a reduction in OPN incentives following the token airdrop. In January 2026, Opinion.Trade processed $8.1 billion in notional volume, 16.7x higher than March's $486.1 million, demonstrating the platform's volume capacity when incentive structures are active.
Network Metrics
In March 2026, the business sector led Opinion.Trade trading volume with a 28.3% share ($134.2 million). The politics sector followed with a 25.1% share ($119.3 million), while macro ranked close behind at 17.6% ($83.6 million). Sports and crypto remained smaller, accounting for 8.5% ($40.4 million) and 2.4% ($11.4 million) of volume, respectively, with the remaining 18.0% ($85.6 million) distributed across other categories. As of March 2026, Opinion.Trade activity concentrated in business and politics, a more institutional and macro-oriented distribution than the sports-led volume on competing platforms.
Roadmap
Dispute Resolution
On April 2, the Opinion Foundation launched its dispute resolution process using the OPN token. To contest a proposed resolution, users must stake the greater of 1% of the market's open interest or 1,000 OPN. The OPN amount will be determined using the Binance OPN/USDT exchange rate at the time the first resolution is proposed. Correct disputes wlil receive a 1:1 reward on the committed deposit, with the full process running onchain and dispute windows varying by market category.
In March 2026, Phase 1 launched with USDT as the dispute stake. On April 2, Phase 2 shifted the stake currency to OPN, with the Opinion Ecosystem Fund distributing rewards. Disputers will forfeit deposits for malicious or unwarranted disputes, and they will be distributed to the correct outcome token holders as compensation for capital held during dispute arbitration.
Closing Summary
On March 5, the Opinion Foundation held a Token Generation Event (TGE) for the OPN token, with 19.9% (198.5 million OPN) of the 1.0 billion total supply circulating at launch. In Q2 2026, OPN holders will be able to launch markets as curators on Opinion.Trade by locking their tokens and earning a share of market trading fees. Curators also have access to AI-powered market rule reviewers that flag edge cases and rewrite resolution criteria.
From Oct. 24 to March 31, Opinion.Trade processed $23.4 billion in cumulative notional volume. On March 14, the Opinion Foundation launched Maker Rebates for sports, esports, and macro markets, distributing $52,200 USDT over the first 17 days at an average of $3,100 per day, with 3,400 wallets registered for the program.
In 2026, the Opinion Foundation plans to launch OPN-enabled rebate tiers, tying maker rebate levels and taker fee discounts to OPN token lock amount and duration. On April 2, the Opinion Foundation launched its dispute resolution process using the OPN token. In January 2026, Opinion.Trade processed $8.1 billion in notional volume, demonstrating the platform's capacity. Whether Opinion recaptures that level depends on how effectively the new incentive and rebate structures draw liquidity providers back to the platform.
This report was commissioned by Superchillclub Limited. All content was produced independently by the author(s) and does not necessarily reflect the opinions of Messari, Inc. or the organization that requested the report. The commissioning organization may have input on the content of the report, but Messari maintains editorial control over the final report to retain data accuracy and objectivity. Author(s) may hold cryptocurrencies named in this report. This report is meant for informational purposes only. It is not meant to serve as investment advice. You should conduct your own research and consult an independent financial, tax, or legal advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance of any asset is not indicative of future results. Please see our Terms of Service for more information.
No part of this report may be (a) copied, photocopied, duplicated in any form by any means or (b) redistributed without the prior written consent of Messari®.
Austin is a Sr. Research Analyst for Messari’s Protocol Services team. He focuses on Prediction Markets, DeFi, & Interop. protocols. He previously worked on PwC's Digital Assets team.
Austin is a Sr. Research Analyst for Messari’s Protocol Services team. He focuses on Prediction Markets, DeFi, & Interop. protocols. He previously worked on PwC's Digital Assets team.
