Opinion is building a four-layer architecture for prediction markets that includes prediction market Opinion.Trade, oracle and market-creation assistant Opinion AI, Opinion Metapool, a planned liquidity layer, and Opinion Protocol, a planned token standard for prediction markets.
On Oct. 24, Opinion launched Opinion.Trade on BNB Chain and surpassed $3.1 billion in cumulative volume on Nov. 17.
As of Nov. 17, open interest on Opinion.Trade reached $60.9 million, ranking third among prediction markets behind Kalshi at $302.1 million and Polymarket at $250.5 million
From Nov. 11 to Nov. 17, Opinion.Trade led all prediction markets with $1.5 billion in notional volume, becoming the third prediction market after Polymarket and Kalshi to lead a seven-day span since April 2024, when weekly prediction market volumes began to exceed $20 million.
Opinion AI is an agentic oracle and market-creation tool that turns simple prompts into fully specified Yes/No markets with clear rules for resolution.
Primer
Opinion is building a four-layer architecture for prediction markets that includes prediction market Opinion.Trade, oracle and market-creation assistant Opinion AI, Opinion Metapool, a planned liquidity layer, and Opinion Protocol, a planned token standard for prediction markets.
On Oct. 24, Opinion.Trade launched private access on BNB Chain, followed by permissionless access on Nov. 4. Opinion built the platform with the capability to expand to additional chains. Markets follow standard prediction market pricing, where a $0.65 price per share implies a 65% probability of the outcome. Positions settle at $1 per share if the result is “correct” and $0 per share if it is “incorrect.” Users who place limit orders (makers) pay no fees, while users who place market orders (takers) pay a dynamic fee tied to the outcome probability. This fee peaks at 50% probability and declines near 0% or 100% probability to a minimum of $0.50.
Opinion AI resolves outcomes through an optimistic proposal and dispute process. After ingesting predefined sources, the system proposes an outcome. A jury of models and agents, including Gemini, OpenAI, and Claude, reviews this proposal before independent human reviewers evaluate and verify the final determination. The Opinion team executes the human review, and token holders are expected to vote on the governance process for final determination after the TGE.
On Mar. 18, Opinion raised a $5 million seed round led by YZi Labs (formerly Binance Labs) and Animoca Ventures to build a prediction market stack focused on macroeconomic data markets. Historically, market participants have expressed macro views through equities, bonds, commodities, derivatives, or other financial instruments, as there has been no mechanism to take a direct position on individual economic releases.
Opinion plans to prioritize macroeconomic data markets and position Opinion.Trade for institutional users to integrate with quantitative workflows, hedging strategies, and structured products. The team plans to develop deeper liquidity in these macroeconomic markets to support tighter spreads and higher trading depth. Tighter spreads and larger order books would create more competitive trading conditions, which in turn may attract greater institutional participation and increase liquidity. While macroeconomic markets are the priority, Opinion.Trade continues to list additional topics based on user demand.
Opinion.Trade
Notional Volume and Open Interest
On Oct. 24, Opinion launched the Opinion.Trade prediction market on BNB Chain, with plans to deploy the platform on additional chains. From Oct. 24 to Nov. 17, Opinion.Trade averaged $132.5 million in daily notional volume, and surpassed $3.1 billion in cumulative notional volume. Opinion.Trade recorded the highest first-month of notional volume of any prediction market launched since April 2024, when Polymarket became the first prediction market to surpass $500 million in cumulative volume. During the same period, daily volume ranged from a high of $651.2 million on Nov. 15 to a low of $11.4 million on Oct. 24, the first day of private access.
From Nov. 11 to Nov. 17, Opinion.Trade led all prediction markets with $1.5 billion in notional volume, representing a 40.4% share across Opinion.Trade, Kalshi, and Polymarket. Kalshi recorded $1.2 billion (32.9% share), and Polymarket recorded $985.0 million (26.6% share), for a combined total of $3.7 billion. Opinion.Trade became the third prediction market to lead a seven-day volume span since April 2024, when weekly volumes across major prediction markets began to exceed $20 million. During this period, trading activity was concentrated in crypto-native markets, including markets on Monad’s TGE date, launch FDV, and BNB prices, which recorded elevated volume relative to other live markets.
One contributing factor to the weekly outperformance could be the OPN points program, which rewards users for providing liquidity, trading, and holding positions. The program’s explicit rules, combined with lower competition on a newer platform, may make early participation more appealing than on established prediction markets, where the criteria for earning future token rewards have not been disclosed.
On Oct. 28, Opinion.Trade became the third prediction market to surpass $10.0 million of open interest. As of Nov. 17, open interest on Opinion.Trade reached $60.9 million, ranking third among prediction markets behind Kalshi at $302.1 million and Polymarket at $250.5 million, indicating that early activity includes sustained position holding.
Network Metrics
From Oct. 24 to Nov. 17, Opinion.Trade averaged 25,300 daily transactions, ranging from a daily high of 71,500 on Oct. 25 to a low of 9,700 on Nov. 4. Daily transactions rose over this period as more markets went live. During the same period, cumulative unique users surpassed 62,400. On Nov. 8, daily new users peaked at 17,600.
Opinion AI is an agentic oracle that Opinion uses for both market creation and outcome resolution. When a user creates a market, Opinion AI converts simple prompts such as ”Will BNB reach $2000 in 2025” into detailed prediction contracts with event descriptions, settlement options, expiry dates, resolution criteria, and reference data sources. It evaluates whether the event can be resolved under clear, objective conditions and requires each market to settle to a binary “Yes” or “No” outcome. Opinion AI does not publish markets that fail to meet these standards, keeping live markets tied to explicit rules and verifiable settlement paths.
Opinion AI is the primary oracle for market resolution on Opinion.Trade. For markets with objective resolution, such as macroeconomic data and cryptocurrency prices, the platform uses third-party oracles like Chainlink to ingest data. Markets without credibly neutral online sources defer to manual resolution administered by the Opinion team until tokenholder governance goes live post-TGE. After a market expires, Opinion AI ingests predefined sources, summarizes the relevant information, and proposes an outcome. A jury of models and agents, including Claude, ChatGPT, and Grok, reviews the proposal, and independent human reviewers evaluate and verify the final determination. Furthermore, Opinion is developing a tokenholder dispute and voting process for market resolutions, though the team has not yet released details.
Opinion runs Opinion AI models within Trusted Execution Environments (TEEs), which provide isolated offchain execution environments to mitigate the risk of outside processes modifying inputs and outputs. The combination of TEEs, a multi-model jury, and human oversight prevents any single model, operator, or data source from determining outcomes.
Opinion Metapool is a planned liquidity layer that will operate across multiple prediction markets, allowing users to deposit and swap Yes and No outcome tokens for semantically similar markets that track the same underlying event, even if those markets use different oracles.
Today, the prediction market landscape suffers from semantic fragmentation, whereby liquidity is spread across several markets that reference the same event with different wording, such as “Will Trump win the 2024 U.S. election?” and “Will Republicans win the 2024 presidential election?”. This results in low order book depth, making it harder to execute larger orders without moving the price.
For example, a user holding Yes tokens from a market with limited liquidity on one platform could swap into Yes tokens from a more liquid market on another platform that tracks the same event. Liquidity providers (LPs) would deposit outcome tokens into these pools and earn swap fees when traders move between semantically linked positions. LPs also take the risk that the prices of the pooled tokens diverge if markets or oracles value the event differently. If those prices do not converge to their initial ratio before the LP withdraws, this creates impermanent loss as the LP ends up with a position worth less than holding the original tokens.
Opinion outlines several potential use cases for the Metapool, including users stuck in low-liquidity markets who could use the Metapool to exit into more active markets that track the same event. Event outcome token shareholders could deploy passive capital into a Metapool to collect swap fees when other participants move between semantically similar markets. Metapool remains in development and, once live, will be a tool to consolidate liquidity across fragmented prediction markets.
Opinion Protocol
Opinion is developing the Opinion Protocol, a to-be-launched token standard designed to make outcome tokens interoperable across prediction markets and composable with other applications. For example, the team has outlined a conceptual use case where lending protocols accept outcome tokens as collateral once they trade above a defined price, such as a “FOMC decision (Dec. 10) is a 25 bps decrease = YES” token rising above $0.90.
Closing Summary
Opinion is building a four-layer architecture for prediction markets that includes Opinion.Trade, Opinion AI, Opinion Metapool, and Opinion Protocol. Following $5 million raised in a seed round led by YZi Labs (formerly Binance Labs) and Animoca Ventures in March, Opinion.Trade launched on BNB Chain on Oct. 24.
From Oct. 24 to Nov. 17, Opinion.Trade averaged $132.5 million in daily notional volume and surpassed $3.1 billion in cumulative notional volume, the highest first-month of notional volume of any prediction market launched since April 2024, when weekly volumes across major prediction markets began to exceed $20 million. As of Nov. 17, open interest on Opinion.Trade reached $60.9 million, ranking third among prediction markets behind Kalshi at $302.1 million and Polymarket at $250.5 million.
Opinion AI is an oracle and market creation tool that turns simple prompts into detailed prediction contracts with event descriptions, settlement options, expiry dates, resolution criteria, and reference data sources
In addition to its live components, Opinion is also developing Metapool, a planned liquidity layer for semantically similar markets, and Opinion Protocol, a proposed token standard for interoperable outcome tokens, with expected release in 2026. Based on trading volume and user growth to date, Opinion could emerge as a third major prediction market platform, alongside Polymarket and Kalshi.
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Austin is a Sr. Research Analyst for Messari’s Protocol Services team. He focuses on Prediction Markets, DeFi, & Interop. protocols. He previously worked on PwC's Digital Assets team.
Austin is a Sr. Research Analyst for Messari’s Protocol Services team. He focuses on Prediction Markets, DeFi, & Interop. protocols. He previously worked on PwC's Digital Assets team.
