NEAR: Priced for Intents, Built for AI

Key Takeaways

• NEAR Intents has become a leading cross-chain settlement business, with $4.26 billion in trailing 30-day volume (3.3x YoY vs 1.6x for the rest of the market).
• NEAR’s capture rate rose from 10% in February 2026 to nearly 40% in October and REV grew 53% over the prior 30 days.
• Perps, Confidential Intents and tokenized equities are early but growing revenue lines.
• NEAR AI is unpriced upside. While NEAR AI already charges customers for inference, aggregate revenue and a future token-directed revenue allocation are not publicly disclosed.
• Buybacks offset only a small share of issuance (~18%), and NEAR remains net inflationary but there are plans to reduce inflation and move toward a fixed supply.
• At ~181x REV, near its historical low, NEAR offers ~50% upside in our base case, with a range of −85% (bear) to +220% (bull).