Ethereum's Future: Post-Pectra Incentive Alignment

Key Insights

• Rollups have enabled Ethereum to scale, but at the cost of economic alignment. While L2s have delivered the performance needed to support user demand, they capture most of the value they generate, contributing little back to Ethereum.
• The Ultrasound Money narrative is in question. With the introduction of blobs and the migration of activity to L2s, Ethereum’s base layer burns less ETH than before, leading to net inflation.
• Ethereum has struggled to define its core purpose in a modular world. It exists in a strategic limbo, caught between competing visions of being infrastructure, programmable money, and a global execution layer, without committing to any one path.
• Early 2025 marked a shift toward proactive L1 development. Rising frustration over Ethereum’s drift gave way to renewed optimism as developers prioritized scaling the base layer.
• Ethereum’s long-term success will depend on a cohesive, layered strategy. Rather than choosing between L1 and L2, Ethereum is moving toward a model where base layer upgrades enhance rollup performance and ecosystem alignment.

The Evolution of the L2 Scaling Roadmap