Pro
Don’t Look Down: Navigating Markets Around Cliff Unlocks
Key Insights
- Cliff unlocks of at least 5% of circulating supply tend to have the most noticeable impact on token relative performance.
- Relative underperformance of unlock tokens mainly occurs in a window seven days before and seven days after the event.
- New product launches, sector outperformance, and other catalysts might overwhelm the typical behavior around unlock dates.
- Highly anticipated large unlocks can have counter-intuitive market reactions.
- It is difficult for tokens with large monthly cliff unlocks to outperform other altcoins on longer time horizons.
Introduction
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Prior to joining Messari, Andrew was an equity trader at a proprietary trading firm. His primary interests are understanding market dynamics, riding trends, and finding the occasional onchain winner.
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