Bitcoin May 2026 Update

The Conference Board's survey shows the share of US consumers expecting higher stock prices 12 months out hit its second-highest reading on record in May. That matters for crypto more than it used to. BTC spent most of May tracking SPY and QQQ in the 0.4–0.6 range, trading squarely as a risk asset. The wrinkle came late in the month as selling accelerated, and correlations to equities and gold collapsed toward zero. If retail euphoria toward stocks is sitting at multi-decade highs while BTC is already selling off uncorrelated, the asymmetry on the next equity wobble looks unfavorable.

Headline PCE accelerated to 3.8% YoY in April, up from 3.5% in March. The jump reflects the energy shock from the Iran war feeding through to consumer prices, with gasoline and energy goods doing most of the work. Core PCE, which strips out food and energy, gained just 0.2% on the month, cooling slightly from March, suggesting limited spillover thus far.

The personal saving rate slid to 2.6% in April, its lowest level since mid-2022 and roughly 69% below the long-run average near 8%. Consumer spending rose 0.5% even as disposable personal income fell 0.1%, with gasoline and energy goods the single-largest driver of the spending increase as the Iran war pushed pump prices above $4.20 a gallon. A low savings rate can reflect confidence in future income, but April's was led by non-discretionary energy outlays rather than discretionary purchases. The pre-pandemic cushion (when Americans saved at roughly double today's rate) has been eroded by two inflation shocks in four years.

Real disposable income per capita fell 1.4% YoY in April after a 0.4% decline in March, the first back-to-back negative readings since late 2023. The trajectory has deteriorated steadily from prints above +6% in mid-2023, and this is the income side of the same squeeze visible in the saving rate. Spending capacity isn't keeping up with the price level, and households are filling the gap by saving less..