Pro
A Valuation of Polymarket (POLY)
Key Insights
- Polymarket is one of the two largest prediction markets. From September 2025 to February 2026, it generated $31.0 billion in volume, a 31% share.
- On March 7, Polymarket was reportedly seeking a $20 billion fully diluted valuation (FDV) in its next funding round, with a POLY token and airdrop confirmed in October 2025. The central question is whether a $20 billion FDV reflects reasonable expectations for future fee generation, or if the market is mispricing the opportunity.
- Our valuation forecasts 2028 FDV based on volume projections across sports, politics, crypto, and other market categories, take rates, and fee multiples.
- On March 30, Polymarket launches taker fees on nearly all markets. How volume responds to taker fees, increased competition, and post-airdrop volume retention will determine whether our assumptions hold.
Valuation Model: The full valuation model, including assumptions and scenario sensitivities, is available here.
Introduction
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Austin is a Sr. Research Analyst for Messari’s Protocol Services team. He focuses on Prediction Markets, DeFi, & Interop. protocols. He previously worked on PwC's Digital Assets team.
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