Spoiler Alert – Coinbase Q4 2023 Revenue Estimates

Key Insights

• We estimate Coinbase revenue for Q4 2023 to be $866 million, growing by 40% from Q3. Our estimate is much higher than the consensus expectation of $824 million.
• This growth is credited not just to higher crypto prices but also to Coinbase’s strong execution over the bear market. With volumes similar to Q4 2022, we expect transaction revenue to be 50% higher.
• As volume surged by 100%, we expect Coinbase to return to its core roots, with transaction revenue contributing 56% of its net revenue in Q4.
• Non-trading revenue continues to be a significant component of Coinbase’s revenue. A major contributor is stablecoin revenue from deposits against USDC. However, we expect this to fall by 2% as the average USDC supply shrank over the quarter.
• We expect blockchain rewards from Coinbase’s staking service to grow by 38% with higher average prices and strong inflows.

Coinbase will announce its Q4 result on February 15, 2024. Over the past two quarters, our Coinbase net revenue estimates have predicted the actual result almost perfectly. In Q3, we estimated its net revenue using publicly available data to be $616 million. Actual net revenue came in marginally higher at $623 million. We use the same model to estimate Coinbase’s Q4 result.