Spoiler Alert – Coinbase Q2 2024 Revenue Estimates

Key Insights

• We estimate Coinbase's net revenue for Q2 2024 to be $1.4 billion, falling by 14%. This estimate is in line with the street’s consensus gross revenue estimate of $1.38 to 1.44 billion.
• Trading volume fell by 30% in Q2 2024 as volatility subsided. We expect transaction revenue to follow a similar trajectory and fall by 29% for the quarter to $770 million.
• Coinbase demonstrates resilience in a slow quarter, as we expect all non-trading revenue streams to grow sequentially. We expect stablecoin revenue to increase by 25% for the quarter, supported by growth in USDC supply.
• We expect blockchain rewards from Coinbase’s staking service to have a flat quarter as Proof-of-Stake assets had a mixed price performance.
• Coinbase’s revenue has become resilient with limited reliance on trading volume. Next, Coinbase is investing in becoming more future-proof, with investments in Base and Coinbase Wallet, which are likely to play an important role in the future.

The second quarter of 2024 started strong, with BTC having freshly achieved new all-time highs following the approval of its spot ETF in the United States. However, as the quarter grew, BTC failed to meaningfully break out and eventually closed lower by 15%. The broader crypto market had an even rougher end to the quarter as popular altcoins like SOL, WIF, DOGE, and SHIB closed lower by 30-50%.