Spoiler Alert - Coinbase Q1 2025 Revenue Estimate

Key Insights

• In Q1 2025, trading volumes on Coinbase’s platform fell 12% QoQ as a result of a crypto market drawdown following strong January volumes.
• Despite this, we expect strong retail participation to dampen the revenue decline, and forecast retail volume share to increase to 24% from 21%.
• We expect subscription and services revenue to be up 5% QoQ, with strong growth in stablecoin revenue and Coinbase One subscriptions partially offset by significant declines in the staking-as-a-service business.
• In aggregate, we estimate Coinbase's net revenue for Q1 2025 to be $2.22 billion, up 1% QoQ and up 40% YoY. This estimate implies a strong beat over the street’s consensus gross revenue estimate of $2.09 billion.

Introduction

Q1 2025 was a volatile down quarter for the crypto markets, with the total crypto market cap surging to over $3.80 trillion in mid-January but falling to $2.77 trillion at the end of the quarter. January held the inauguration of America’s first pro-crypto president, Donald Trump, and also spawned his official presidential memecoin TRUMP, on Solana, which quickly peaked at an FDV of over $70 billion. Both events attracted significant mainstream attention to crypto and led to a significant spike in volumes and retail interest. However, market exuberance quickly subsided after the president’s Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) announcement proved underwhelming, and tariff-driven pain from the traditional markets bled into cryptoassets.