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Spoiler Alert – Coinbase Q1 2024 Revenue Estimates
Key Insights
- We estimate Coinbase net revenue for Q1 2024 to be $1.5 billion, growing by 65% for the quarter. Our estimate is much higher than the consensus gross revenue estimate of $1.2 billion.
- Bitcoin spot ETF approval and fresh all-time highs meant trading volume doubled in Q1 2024. As volume surged, we expect transaction revenue to follow a similar trajectory and grow by 89% for the quarter to ~$1 billion.
- Investments in non-trading revenue lines continue to pay off for Coinbase and may contribute to 34% of net revenue. The largest component, stablecoin revenue, may grow by 12% for the quarter, in line with the growth in USDC supply.
- We expect blockchain rewards from Coinbase’s staking service to grow by 45% with higher average prices across all supported Proof-of-Stake assets.
- Coinbase’s revenue is future-proof, with custody income and Base sequencer revenue likely to play a more significant role going forward.
The first quarter of 2024 started strong, with the SEC approving Bitcoin spot ETFs in January. It ended even stronger as BTC made fresh all-time highs in March. Coinbase has emerged as a key beneficiary from this maturing of the asset class.
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Kunal previously worked in equity research and now considers himself a financial analyst in crypto. He specializes in valuation and bottom-up analysis for Layer-1 and DeFi protocols because he has yet to learn of a way to value NFTs.
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