Now is the toughest part of the bear market to trade

It’s probably too late to put on a huge short position in risk assets.

It’s definitely too early to go long.

I have no doubt there is still more downside in risk assets. At the time of writing, the S&P500 is down about 30% from its ATH. While it has priced in a normal recession, it has certainly not priced in a severe recession, which early unemployment estimates - from all over the world - are indicating.

However, the return you would get from shorting risk-on assets from this point on is not high-quality compared to the risk.

With a $6T package which corresponds to ⅓ of the GDP, the Federal Reserve and Congress have signaled that they are taking “a whatever it takes” stance in the short-term despite enormous long-term consequences. As such, you will be fighting headline risks like this on a daily basis. The VIX being still at 60+ certainly does not help risk-adjusted returns.