BWR 2026 Theses

Introduction

2025 was not the year most of us expected. Bitcoin underperformed global stock benchmarks, and debasement trades showed up in commodities like gold and silver instead. Aside from a handful of names that are up meaningfully year-to-date (SYRUP, META, ZEC come to mind), most cryptoassets delivered disappointing returns.

As a result, many builders, investors, and traders have shifted their focus to onchain RWAs, in both perps and spot form, including equities, commodities, and yield sources uncorrelated to crypto markets. There has already been remarkable progress on this front: spot trading via xStocks, perps trading via HIP-3 markets, and Figure bringing HELOC-backed yield onchain. While we expect this category to keep growing in 2026, the apathy in crypto markets as we close out the year is mostly a reflection of prices being down, not fundamentals.

In fact, 2025 saw several important wins: stablecoin supply grew 50% to over $300B; money markets reached all-time highs in deposits and outstanding loans; the DEX-to-CEX ratio made new all-time highs, with Solana consolidating as the dominant onchain spot venue; Hyperliquid scaled onchain perps into a dominant position, processing roughly $2.8T in perpetual volume; Hyperliquid and Pump highlighted the shift in value capture to the application layer, generating $815M and $637M in app revenue year-to-date; and prediction markets went mainstream via Polymarket and Kalshi, with most users unaware they were even touching crypto infrastructure.

Still, being self-critical, some challenges remain heading into 2026. Top of mind is that tokens are broken, a theme that played out repeatedly in 2025. From M&A deals that neglected tokenholders (Coinbase-Vector, Circle-Axelar, Pump-Padre) to the recurring frictions between Labs and DAO entities, most recently at Aave, underscoring that the equity-token dual structure is unworkable. We’ve made efforts like the Token Transparency Framework (and our upcoming Lightspeed IR platform) to improve disclosures, and protocols like MetaDAO have laid the foundations for re-centering tokens as the primary asset for value accrual with embedded holder rights. 2026 will be critical if we want to turn the tide in liquid token investing.

Below, we share theses across these and other focus areas from our analysts, while remaining optimistic about the size of the opportunity.

Ownership Coins will Win (Carlos)