Bitcoin November 2025 Update

With official labor data still delayed because of the government shutdown, investors again leaned on ADP’s private-payroll report for a sense of what’s happening with U.S. employment. In November, that data showed private-sector payrolls fell by 32,000 jobs, a sharp reversal from October’s revised gain of 47,000. That loss undercuts hopes that the modest bounce in October, which many saw as a tentative stabilization after weak hiring earlier in the fall,  represented a durable recovery. The drop in November adds to a growing pattern of “soft patches,” and suggests the recent stabilization may have been short-lived rather than a turnaround. Some of the weakness appears concentrated among small businesses, highlighting that any resilience in the labor market remains spotty rather than broad-based.

The fresh data reshapes arguments on both sides of the Federal Reserve debate. On one hand, the blow to hiring reinforces concerns that the labor market is weakening, which argues in favor of additional rate cuts. On the other hand, the fact that there isn’t a widespread collapse still leaves room for a more cautious approach - the downturn may be more of a cooling than a crash, but cooling nonetheless. Markets will be watching closely for the delayed official payrolls numbers once released, to see whether the ADP result reflects a temporary skid or signals a deeper shift in labour-market momentum. As of December 4th, markets have assigned an 87% chance of a 25bps cut in the December Fed meeting. 

Flows

Bitcoin ETF flows reversed sharply in November, posting significant net outflows after a steady run of inflows from May through October. The month saw roughly $3.46B in redemptions, completely erasing the $3.42B in new inflows seen last month and the worst outflows since February 2025 ($3.56B). The reversal highlights how quickly sentiment deteriorated despite months of strong accumulation. The alignment between ETF flows and price action remained intact, with November’s outflows closely mirroring BTC’s double-digit monthly decline.DATCO activity remained limited in November, with aggregate treasury holdings largely unchanged aside from a single notable purchase. MicroStrategy was the only buyer during the month, adding ~9K BTC to its balance sheet. Other treasury-linked companies remained inactive, extending the pause in broad-based corporate accumulation seen in prior months.Market-adjusted NAVs (mNAV) across BTC-treasury-exposed companies continued to compress through November, with most names sliding to new multi-month lows as BTC’s drawdown deepened. The most notable shift came from MicroStrategy. After spending much of October oscillating around parity, MSTR’s mNAV broke decisively lower in November, falling from ~1.0 to roughly 0.75 by month-end. The decline reflects both BTC’s spot weakness and widening discounts across DATCOs as risk sentiment deteriorated.