Bitcoin March 2026 Update

Market Commentary

The US labor market showed clear signs of cooling in February, with hiring activity deteriorating meaningfully even before geopolitical risks intensified. Job openings declined sharply and hiring fell to 4.8 million, pushing the hiring rate down to 3.1%, its lowest level since 2020 and, excluding the pandemic, the weakest in over a decade. Importantly, this softness is not being driven by layoffs, which remain relatively contained, but rather by a lack of new job creation. The result is a labor market that appears stagnant rather than contracting, where opportunities are becoming more limited despite still-low unemployment. This dynamic complicates the macro outlook, as weakening hiring reduces economic momentum while persistent inflation pressures constrain the Fed’s ability to respond.

While the Iran-driven energy shock is pushing gasoline prices higher, the relative burden on US consumers remains more manageable than in past cycles. Structural shifts toward a more service-oriented and energy-efficient economy, combined with strong wage growth, have reduced energy intensity both at the macro and household levels. While rising fuel costs will pressure discretionary spending at the margin, the data suggest the US economy is better positioned to absorb the shock than in previous energy-driven downturns.

Moreover, US consumers entered March on relatively solid footing, with retail sales rebounding 0.6% in February and core spending remaining firm. Strength in discretionary categories and ongoing expansion in manufacturing activity further point to underlying demand holding up despite modest job creation. However, this resilience sits on increasingly fragile ground: rising energy prices, softer equity markets, and uneven hiring trends introduce new headwinds. While consumers have not yet meaningfully pulled back, the data suggests a shift toward more selective spending ahead, as higher costs, particularly fuel, begin to erode discretionary demand.