Bitcoin February 2026 Update

Market Commentary

WTI and Brent crude have risen sharply over the past week, climbing roughly 22% since Feb. 26 to trade near $77 and $84 per barrel, respectively. The move injects renewed upside pressure into near-term inflation expectations. With inflation having run above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target for several consecutive years, the risk of a sustained move higher in crude complicates the disinflation narrative and could delay anticipated rate cuts. While the US economy is less energy-intensive than in prior oil shock cycles, the speed and magnitude of the recent advance elevate the probability that energy will once again become a material swing factor in both inflation prints and monetary policy expectations.

However, the broader macro backdrop looks materially different from past oil shock cycles. As shown in the chart below, US real GDP has expanded more than threefold since the late 1970s, while oil consumption has remained largely flat over the same period. While higher crude prices can still feed through to inflation and consumer costs, the US economy today is far less vulnerable to the type of broad stagflationary shocks that characterized the oil crises of the 1970s.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) also moved higher, climbing to 99.33 amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, reinforcing the dollar’s traditional role as a global safe-haven asset. Despite the US being directly involved in the conflict, capital flows appear to be favoring dollar-denominated assets, underscoring the currency’s structural dominance in global trade and finance. That said, the index remains below pre-Liberation Day levels, following a sharp repricing lower last year after renewed trade tensions weighed on sentiment. While the euro and yen have attracted incremental attention in 2026, recent price action highlights that, in periods of geopolitical stress, the dollar continues to command primary reserve status and attract defensive inflows.