Flows
For BTC, the relationship between ETF flows and price movement, regardless of causality, continues to serve as a powerful momentum signal. In June, we highlighted that if ETF flows continued, a new all-time high would be imminent, and this played out in July. In August, we saw a reversal with net outflows of $750M, the third-worst month for ETF flows over the last year. As shown below, despite BlackRock taking in ~$600M of inflows, outflows from Ark (-$660M), Fidelity (-$620M), and Grayscale (-$300M) contributed towards the majority of the sell pressure.
Simultaneously, while not a source of outflows, purchases by Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) were relatively lackluster for the month of August. Less than 4K BTC were purchased in August, far less than the ~72K BTC purchased in July.
Looking at DAT valuations, while mNAVs continue to compress, there is still a sizable premium among many BTC DATs. This extends the window in which these companies can continue to raise money through at-the-market (ATM) offerings. Additionally, preferred shares can continue to be value accretive as we’ve seen in the case of Strategy (MicroStrategy). Notably, Strategy’s offerings have raised about $5.6B year-to-date, making up for 12% of all US IPO issuance (preferred or common) in 2025.
At the same time, the longer-term trend of declining BTC reserves continues. BTC held on exchanges fell by 2% MoM and 18% YoY (from 2.9M to 2.5M). Additionally, according to Glassnode data, BTC held by OTC desks was ~155K in early August. Below we show the BTC exchange reserves over the last twelve months.
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