Pro
Macro

Analyst Notes: Why we still have much further down to go in (mostly) charts

Tom DunleavyJun 30, 2022 ⋅ 5 min read

BTC is down 70%+ from ATHs, ETH is down 80%+. We have to be hitting some sort of bottom right? Multiple on-chain analysts and technical charting “gurus” have said as much. Max pain is in.

Unfortunately, there is a huge body of fundamental evidence that contradicts that.

Daniel Cheung wrote a fantastic thread steel-manning the downside case. To summarize: correlations for crypto to equities are still very tight. We still have further downside on GDP and earnings, monetary tightening will continue, and inflation is still too high. Macro will likely push equities lower and crypto along with it.

While he hit the nail on the head with a lot of his points, a few are worth digging deeper into.

Inflation

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Tom Dunleavy

47 Reportsdunleavy89

Tom is a Sr. Research Analyst at Messari. His primary focus is on Layer-1's as well as the relationship between traditional finance and crypto. Prior to joining Messari, Tom worked in Investment Consulting at Meketa and Investment Management at SSGA. Tom studied Finance at Bentley University and earned his CFA and CAIA Charters.

Mentioned Assets
Outline
  • Inflation
  • Earnings
  • Correlations
  • Wrapping Up
Author
Tom Dunleavy
Tom is a Sr. Research Analyst at Messari. His primary focus is on Layer-1's as well as the relationship between traditional finance and crypto. Prior to joining Messari, Tom worked in Investment Consulting at Meketa and Investment Management at SSGA. Tom studied Finance at Bentley University and earned his CFA and CAIA Charters.
47 Reportsdunleavy89
Mentioned Assets