🧠 [Analysis] Statistical fallacy behind the Lindy Effect – Qiao Wang

The Lindy Effect states that future life expectancy is proportional to current age. However, this is because, in the absence of all information except for current age, the best estimator for future life expectancy is the current age. The more relevant information acquired, the less relevant the Lindy Effect, thus making it a trivial heuristic. Additionally, another factor that undermines the usefulness of the Lindy Effect is how closely linked it is to the survivorship bias.