A Valuation of $PUMP

Key Insights

• Pump.fun has emerged as one of crypto’s most profitable applications, generating nearly $700 million in protocol revenue ahead of its anticipated $4 billion token launch.
• Its two core business lines, the pump.fun launchpad and PumpSwap DEX, capture value across the memecoin lifecycle, with PumpSwap increasingly dominating trading volumes despite lower margins.
• The valuation methodology applies forward-looking revenue projections through 2027 factoring in crypto volumes, Solana dominance, Pump.fun share, and PumpSwap share.
• Based on those assumptions, pump.fun's fully diluted valuation ranges from ~$922 million in a bear case to ~$27 billion in a bull case, with ~$7 billion as the base case outcome.
• Lastly, we caution market participants to pay attention to token equity structure, as value may accrue to insiders instead of to the token itself.

Introduction