A valuation of Lighter

Key Insights

• Lighter has emerged as crypto's second-largest perp DEX, capturing 17% of the perp DEX market by volume in 2025.
• Lighter's core differentiation is zero-fee trading for retail. This gives Lighter a potential cost advantage over existing competitors and a last mover advantage, since future entrants cannot undercut fees that are already zero.
• Our valuation forecasts 2028 revenue based on total perp volume growth, DEX share expansion, Lighter's market share, and take rate dynamics.
• Based on those assumptions, Lighter's base-case fully diluted value is $2.2 billion, roughly in line with its current $1.5 billion FDV. The valuation ranges from $76.8 million in a bear case to $26.1 billion in a bull case.
• Post-TGE volume data is still maturing. We urge market participants to track Lighter's retention over the next 60-90 days as the most critical input to this valuation.

Valuation Model: The full valuation model, including assumptions and scenario sensitivities, is available here.