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A Valuation of LayerZero
Key Insights
- LayerZero accounts for an estimated 57% of all crosschain volume, peaking at 76% in Q2 2025, with over $100 billion in cumulative value transferred across its rails.
- Its three potential revenue lines are messaging fees, activated via the fee switch, Stargate swap fees, and Zero L1 fees.
- The valuation methodology applies forward-looking fee projections through 2028, factoring in total crypto spot volume, DEX share, crosschain demand, LayerZero's USDT market share, Stragate fees, Zero L1 fee capture, and the fee switch take rate, among others.
- The primary risks are tokenomics and fee switch execution, as ZRO faces approximately 100% inflation from remaining vesting unlocks through 2030.
- Based on those assumptions, LayerZero's FDV ranges from $290.27 million in the bear case to $3.00 billion in the base case, with $19.11 billion in the bull case.
Valuation Model: The full valuation model is available here.
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Research analyst, painter in a past life. Background: Research stint in renewables + weather, coder in TradFi, recent data science grad.
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